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Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, is embarking on a critical journey to Washington to confer with American leader Donald Trump. This marks the first face-to-face meeting between the two leaders after an extended period of escalating strains and heated rhetoric.

Topics for Discussion

Venezuela, drug trafficking, energy, regional stability, and US strikes on alleged narco-boats are expected to be high on the agenda when they gather at the US presidential residence on Tuesday.

Background of Tensions

While the two men were cordial in a telephone conversation after a recent American action, Petro has since stated he feels there is a "real threat" of armed intervention targeting Colombia. Trump, in turn, has earlier commented that a military operation in Colombia "sounds good".

The upcoming meeting follows months of the two presidents trading barbs. Petro has often condemned ongoing US attacks on alleged drugs boats in the Caribbean and Pacific, as well as the US administration's immigration policies.

"He changed his attitude," the US President reportedly stating prior to the Washington meeting.

Points of Contention

On the US side, Trump has accused Petro's administration of not doing enough to stop the trafficking of cocaine heading north, and has pledged to expand strikes to terrestrial objectives throughout the region.

But, the acrimony seemed to subside after a "polite" phone call involving the two leaders, which a Colombian official later described as an 180-degree turn "by both parties".

Mediating Role

Per diplomatic sources, a key figure – US Senator Rand Paul – was instrumental in setting up the conversation. "I believe in diplomacy and I thought our ties were going in the wrong way," the senator reportedly. "My hope is for our relations to get better."

Regional Stability and the ELN

Ahead of the meeting, officials from Bogotá stated that much of the discussion would center on mutual US and Colombian concerns over stability in Venezuela, with which Colombia has an long border.

Much of that frontier is controlled of the ELN. This Colombian guerrilla group, founded in the 1960s, controls drug trafficking, racketeering, smuggling, and unlawful extraction in frontier regions and allegedly works with corrupt elements within the Venezuelan government.

From the US perspective, addressing the threat of the ELN will be crucial to guaranteeing security for US firms engaged in Venezuela's energy sector. Analysts note that the ELN has the potential to disrupt investment plans by attacking international businesses and employees, as it has in the past done in Colombia.

Counter-Narcotics Collaboration

An equally pressing issue for the two presidents will be the fight against drug trafficking from Colombia, the world's largest producer of the narcotic. In November, Petro ordered a temporary pause on intelligence sharing with US security agencies after Trump's threats.

The US has, conversely, officially listed Colombia as a country that has "not met its obligations" in combating the narcotics trade. It has also imposed sanctions on figures in Petro's government, encompassing the president and his relatives.

"There is no fight without Colombia," stated a analyst. "The threat to cut off Colombian intelligence could also weaken all enforcement efforts."

Possible Scenarios

But even with several issues for collaboration, the possibility for a clash exists. "The US President's stance can be volatile," observed a former diplomat. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some concessions to avoid Trump's anger... But one never knows."

For the Colombian leader, even a difficult meeting could be beneficial. His presidential term concludes in the coming months, and the results of the talks could influence the electoral chances of his chosen candidate.

"In some ways, he's kind of in a favorable situation," said a regional expert. "If it goes well undermines criticism... If it doesn't, he's defending Colombian interests. He could turn that in his favour."