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A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."